The only chance that this could happen is if Boehner feels that a House revolt against him will succeed. Even then the chance is very remote. He does not want to go down in history as the weakest Speaker of the House who also tanked the US debt rating and our economy to boot.
Shutting the govt down would be very costly and unless you have a chance to win it won’t be done….except if the crazies get control and even the Koch Bros doesn’t want that. Since Dems control the Senate a shutdown would only be an exercise in cutting off your nose….for no good reason.
The government managed to get us passed the “fiscal cliff.” But they did so by creating three more smaller, but still substantial “cliffs.”
And according to Morgan Stanley’s Vincent Reinhart we’re likely to go over one of those cliffs, and it’s unclear what the consequences will be.
First, let’s review how we got passed the “fiscal cliff.” Reinhart summarizes in a new research note: